Since the entry into force in 2015 of the Euro 6 standard, the approval of thermal vehicles has been carried out in real traffic conditions, on driving cycles called RDE cycles (from the English acronym “Real Driving Emissions”). The great diversity of these cycles (due to the weather, topography, road network and local legislation or driving style) represents a real challenge for car manufacturers who must control the risk of non-compliance of their vehicles in the multitude of cases that it is possible to encounter.
The evaluation of a vehicle over an RDE cycle is done by calculating a compliance factor, which is based in particular on the mass of pollutants emitted per kilometer travelled. To comply with the standard, this conformity factor must be less than 1. It is crucial for a manufacturer to assess the risk (i.e. the probability) that his vehicle will obtain a conformity factor exceeding the standard, over an RDE cycle drawn randomly.
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OSE has designed a method for statistical analysis of the risk of non-compliance, based on a representative database of RDE cycles and on a control of the confidence interval of the emission models provided by the manufacturers (or designed by OSE).